AAA Projects Record 72.2 Million July 4 Travelers Despite Higher Gas
AAA forecasts 72.2 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more for Independence Day 2026, with 61.4 million going by car as pump prices run higher than last year's holiday average.
Source: AAA
WASHINGTON — Independence Day traffic is not abstract if your plan is Chicago to Harbor Country, Bay Area to Tahoe, or LA to Big Sur, or really anywhere, especially if you're bringing the little ones and grandma/grandpa in one over-packed vehicle. Bless you, and good luck.
AAA projects 72.2 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home during the July 4 holiday period running Saturday, June 27 through Sunday, July 5, 2026. That beats last year's record of 71.8 million travelers, though growth slowed to about half a percent as inflation pressure mounts.
Whether this is because it's too expensive to fly, or people don't mind the higher gas prices, or the fact that EVs have grown in popularity, we aren't sure.
Generally, road trips still dominate: an estimated 61.4 million people will drive, roughly flat versus 61.3 million last year. About 85 percent of holiday travelers are expected to go by car even with pump prices higher than Independence Day 2025. AAA cited a national average near $3.15 last year versus higher prices this summer, while noting 2022's holiday average near $4.80 still sets the recent ceiling.
Air travel surprisingly holds steady near 5.9 million flyers. Cruises and other modes see the biggest percentage gain, up about 5.3 percent year over year.
AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have tracked holiday travel volumes since 2000 using employment, household wealth, fuel prices, and lodging data. The forecast is a planning tool, not a guarantee your Sunday return will be painless.
For Asian households stacking multigenerational lake weekends or SGV arrival dinners, the practical read is unchanged: leave early or leave late, never leave at 2 p.m. on Sunday because the map looked fine on Wednesday. Basically, exercise common sense, and know that this year will be no less crowded than last.
Run your corridor in our EV versus gas road trip calculator before you assume the EV saves money at summer pump prices. If you are taking the Pacifica, Highlander, or RAV4 Hybrid, our Chicago to Michigan lake towns guide and San Francisco to LA guide already spell out the merge pain points.
Worst windows in AAA's messaging are heavy congestion around July 2 and the return leg July 5. Book beach parking and hotel check-in before you promise arrival dinner. Pack snacks where you can see them. I-94, I-5, and the Grapevine do not care about your playlist. But either way, have fun and enjoy the ride.